Ready for a good scare this weekend? I hope so because there are two potentially terrifying wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, one about a violent college roommate and another about a team of trapped cave divers. Of the two, you’d think Sanctum would have the edge, not just because it’ll benefit from 3D ticket prices, but also because it’s debuting in more theaters and is attracting quite a bit of attention for having James Cameron as a producer. Of Cameron’s wide releases, he’s never opened with less than $25.9 million and that was for True Lies back in 1994. A somewhat reasonable comparison here could be 2008’s Jumper. That one also hit in February, but began its run in many more theaters. We could also consider another underwater adventure, the May 2006 release, Poseidon, which took in $22.2 million to start, but still, in the end, the fact that the box office is generally down the first week of February could get the better of Sanctum making it one of Cameron’s lowest openings with just $15 million.
Now for our second new wide release, The Roommate. The standard low-budget horror movie model guarantees this film at least $20 million. About this time in 2009, Friday the 13th opened big with $40.6 million, but that one opened in 3,105 theaters as compared to The Roommate’s 2,400. A more comparable comparison could be last year’s The Crazies, which had a similar release and took in $16.1 million in week one. Then again, one thing The Roommate has going for it that The Crazies didn’t is a few famous faces ideal for attracting the under-30 crowd, Minka Kelly, Leighton Meester and Cam Gigandet. To add to its appeal, the subject matter is absolutely perfect for the target age range. It’s about a college freshman who gets paired with a psychopath as a roommate. Hopefully nobody can really relate to this situation, but on some level, quite a few of us certainly can. Considering the weak numbers at the box office and some slightly related competition, The Roommate should come in with about $20 million for a winning weekend.
Considering the painfully weak performances by last weekend’s newcomers, it looks as though both The Rite and The Mechanic could suffer nasty hits, leaving No Strings Attached in the third position. The Rite opened a bit lower than Legion, which dropped a whopping 59% in week two last year. The Rite shouldn’t take as hard a fall, but it certainly could lose 50% of its earnings, leaving it with just $8 million. As for The Mechanic, if that continues on a slightly stronger path than Faster, it’s looking at a 45% fall, with $6 million for week two. Considering No Strings Attached held on pretty well in its second week and is still without romantic comedy competition, let’s stick with that 31% drop and give it $9 million for its third week.
Now we arrive at our Oscar potentials, which are proving to be much stronger than expected. I’m not making the same mistake twice and doubting The King’s Speech’s ability to pull in some serious cash, so I’m saying this one barely drops, perhaps no more than 5% and earns another $10 million. However, True Grit could falter a bit, dropping 20%, leaving it with about $6 million. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to trump The Green Hornet. That one is on its way down at a much steeper decline, but should still only fall about 35%, which would leave it with at least $7 million.
The final two spots will likely go to the films with the longer legs courtesy of awards season, Black Swan and The Fighter. Neither have the staying power of The King’s Speech, but are certainly fizzling out at a snail’s pace, which means the fast-falling The Dilemma should slide right by them. After a 12.8% week nine drop, Black Swan could take a 20% hit this time around giving it a $4 million haul. The Fighter could lose about 15%, which would give it $3 million for its ninth week.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Roommate
2. Sanctum
3. The King’s Speech
4. No Strings Attached
5. The Rite
6. The Green Hornet
7. True Grit
8. The Mechanic
9. Black Swan
10. The Fighter
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
