We’re finally onto bigger and better things at the box office! After five weeks of lackluster numbers, at last we’re seeing an improvement. As compared to last weekend, the box office is up a whopping 83.7%. Now the questions is, will the trend continue? Based on reports from previous years, sadly, no. Valentine’s Day weekend almost always sees a hefty boost followed by a drop. Generally, this drop is no more than 30%, but that depends on how our newcomers perform and on how our old timers hold up.
This weekend, we’ve got three big releases all planning to hit 2,900 theaters or more. As crazy as this sounds, Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son might take the weekend. Not only did the first film of the franchise open strong with $25.7 million back in the summer of 2000, but the second followed up with an even bigger start, $27.7 million and there’s no reason not to think the third won’t put up a similar number, perhaps $24 million.
Making Big Mommas an even stronger contender is its opposition, I Am Number Four and Unknown. While I Am Number Four is geared towards younger crowds and Unknown to adults, both are still vying for those in search of an action film. Unknown is clearly Warner Bros’ attempt to repeat the success of Taken, but let’s not forget, Taken only started with $24.7 million and enjoyed a rather slow decline from there. Also, Taken’s only competition was The Uninvited, New in Town and Paul Blartt: Mall Cop, which was in its second week. Odds are, Neeson won’t be able to pull it off twice, but he could still land a $20 million weekend.
As for I Am Number Four, it could either go the Jumper route, earning $27.4 million its first week or follow in the footsteps of Push, which only earned $10.1 million. Considering Jumper opened in over 400 more theaters and Push over 600 less, I Am Number Four could wind up falling right smack in the middle of the two of them with about $19 million.
Like most Valentine’s Day hits, Just Go With It looks as though it’ll freefall in week two, possibly dropping a massive 60%, only earning another $12 million. Unfortunately, once will likely be enough for most Bieber fans and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never will lose more than half of its week one earnings leaving it with about $10 million. The Eagle will also have a tough time maintaining especially with two very attractive new action films hitting theaters. That one could see a 40% drop giving it $5 million this time around. Gnomeo and Juliet surprised everyone with a big opening and could surprise everyone yet again with a modest decline. Odds are, it won’t have Tangled’s stamina, but there’s no reason to think it’ll fall more than 35%. If that’s the case, the gnomes will have a $16 million second weekend.
Fast falling competition should make the seventh position an easy win for The King’s Speech, which merely dropped 6.2% last weekend. It’s doubtful it’ll perform as well this weekend, but that change could be just 20%, giving it another $6 million for week 13. The Roommate will undoubtedly slide right on by, losing another 40% in week three, earning just $4 million while No Strings Attached will hold on in the bottom spot of the top ten with $3 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son
2. Unknown
3. I Am Number Four
4. Gnomeo and Juliet
5. Just Go With It
6. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
7. The King’s Speech
8. The Eagle
9. The Roommate
10. No Strings Attached
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
