This is going to be an interesting weekend at the box office. We’ve got four new wide releases, but none are hitting more than 3,000 theaters and none have a particularly wide appeal. Drive‘s getting the most theaters and is backed by some solid reviews, but after last weekend’s Academy Award potential, Warrior, had a lackluster start, there’s some concern. However, it seems more likely that we could have another The Town on our hands. Should that be the case, Drive could wrap weekend one with about $20 million. Also on the darker and gorier side we’ve got the remake of Sam Peckinpah’s Straw Dogs. Story-wise, this one bears some similarities to Last House on the Left, but it’s also got some much bigger names attached. Should James Marsden, Kate Bosworth and Alexander Skarsgård have some pull, Straw Dogs could top the Last House on the Left remake’s $14.1 million start and post about $15 million.

If you’re looking for some lighter fair, there’s also I Don’t Know How She Does It and The Lion King (in 3D). Sarah Jessica Parker’s last non-Sex and the City attempt, Did You Hear About the Morgans? bombed, only opening with $6.6 million and there’s a good chance the same could happen here. However, I Don’t Know How She Does It has no direct competition and isn’t fighting off Avatar so the film could post about $5,000 per theater. Should that be the case, I Don’t Know How She Does It will wrap the weekend with about $12 million. As for The Lion King, the chance of the 3D release earning a fraction of the amount of the film’s 1994 run is slim to none, but should it take about the same as Winnie the Pooh, it’s looking at $8 million for the weekend.

With nearly no changes in theater counts, the veterans should fall right in line. After a $22.4 million start, Contagion could experience a Knowing-sized week one to two fall, losing 40% and coming in with about $13 million. The Help continues its moderate decline, but, with another film with Oscar buzz entering the race, its fall could creep up the slightest bit to perhaps about 45%. If that happens, The Help will finish week six with another $5 million.

Sure it’s sad Warrior had such a weak start, but, on the bright side, that means there’s little room to fall. Warrior could lose just 25% of its week one profits which would give it about $4 million this time around. As for The Debt, that one looks to be on its way out rather quickly. After seeing its week one intake slashed in half, it’ll likely experience the same this time around, giving it about $2.5 million for week three.

With both Shark Night 3D and Apollo 18 poised to take big hits courtesy of poor reviews and Straw Dogs, the 9th and 10th positions should be easy grabs for Colombiana and Rise of the Planet of the Apes respectively. Should both of those films take 45% hits, they’ll come in with about $2 million a piece.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)