A Best Picture frontrunner just isn’t what it used to be. Since 2004, the Oscar winner for Best Picture has only won a corresponding top Golden Globe prize once. That film was runaway hit “Slumdog Millionaire”, and films that universally likeable don’t come around too often (could it be this year’s “The Artist”?). Golden Globe nominations will be announced on December 15th, and if history is any indication, it’s likely that two films will be pitted against one another in the top race. Here’s a look back at the films and the factors that led to these conflicting wins over the past seven years for the Best Motion Picture – Drama Golden Globe and the Oscar for Best Picture.
2004
Golden Globe winner: “The Aviator”
Oscar winner: “Million Dollar Baby”
This face-off was all about directors: Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood. At that time, Scorsese had yet to win an Oscar, and his Howard Hughes biopic had plenty of technical advantages and star power going for it. Eastwood’s subtler boxer story came from out of nowhere in November, and after Eastwood won the Best Director Golden Globe, he managed to rally enough support by Oscar time for the film to win Best Picture.
2005
Golden Globe winner: “Brokeback”, ” Mountain”
Oscar winner: “Crash”
This is one of the only times in history that the eventual Oscar winner wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Picture. The highly popular love story about two gay cowboys easily won the Globe and subsequent prizes, and most Oscarologists attribute its shocking loss to the less acclaimed racial ensemble drama to homophobia among Oscar voters. The fact that it won nearly every Best Picture prize up until that point supports that theory.
2006
Golden Globe winner: “Babel”
Oscar winner: “The Departed”
After 2004, Martin Scorsese was back in the race for his hugely entertaining Boston mob flick, and he started by beating out the twice-nominated Eastwood at the Globes. Voters probably weren’t sure which film they preferred, choosing the somber, multilingual “Babel”. By Oscar time, Scorsese was set for the win, and his film managed to grab the top prize despite some serious competition from Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima” and others.
2007
Golden Globe winner: “Atonement”
Oscar winner: “No Country for Old Men”
The Coen Brothers didn’t have a productive showing at the Globes, losing the Best Director race to French filmmaker Julian Schnabel and the top category to Joe Wright’s period drama. For some reason, “Atonement” experienced a subsequent backlash, and was almost entirely out of the running by Oscar night, when “No Country for Old Men” and its directors easily nabbed the victory.
2009
Golden Globe winner: “Avatar”
Oscar winner: “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron’s big-budget sci-fi spectacular won over Globe voters when Kathryn Bigelow’s independent war film was still just a dark horse. “The Hurt Locker” surprised by picking up nearly all of the subsequent awards, and “Avatar” was relegated to some technical categories on Oscar night, when Bigelow made history and became the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar.
2010
Golden Globe winner: “The Social Network”
Oscar winner: “The King’s Speech”
The Facebook movie was a huge hit with critics and audiences, and it managed to perform quite well at the Golden Globes. It slowly lost steam when a more typical Oscar movie managed victories with the guilds and stole its thunder, paving the way for “The King’s Speech” to sweep the top races at the Oscars.
Which two films will battle each other for the win this year?
