Could February go two for two? (For wide releases, at least.) After a solid performance from both Chronicle and The Woman in Black it’s up to Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace and The Vow to keep it up.
Journey 2 is getting the widest release and even though it’s going up against a nice assortment of competition, there’s no reason to think it can’t pull a Percy Jackson and still post a big number. Will it make $31 million? Probably not, but it could match its predecessor’s $21 million opening weekend haul. Thanks to Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds, Safe House could be heading towards a $25 million opening, which is a little stronger than Washington’s last release, Unstoppable. The Vow might actually find itself right in the mix with Journey 2 and Safe House thanks to some pre-Valentine’s day excitement. Should The Vow fall right in line with another McAdams release, The Time Traveler’s Wife, it’s looking at an $18 million opening. Also along for the ride will be the 3D release of Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace, which is poised to top Beauty and the Beast‘s $17.7 million opening with about $20 million.
As for last weekend’s big winners, sadly, they could both be on fast declines. Should Chronicle and The Woman in Black lose half of their weekend one profits, Chronicle will be heading towards $11 million and The Woman in Black to about $10 million. The Grey took a tough hit its second week out and, thanks to all the new competition, it could meet the same fate in weekend three. Should it drop 50%, The Grey will wrap the weekend with about $4.5 million.
On the other hand, Big Miracle likely won’t fall much. But, then again, that’s really only because it didn’t make too much its first weekend out. Should Big Miracle lose just 35%, it’ll add another $5 million to its pot, possibly surpassing The Grey on the top ten. Lucky for Underworld: Awakening and One For the Money they’ve got enough of a lead on Red Tails and The Descendants because both are heading towards 50% losses, bringing their weekend totals to $3 million and $2.5 million respectively.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Safe House
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
3. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace 3D
4. The Vow
5. Chronicle
6. The Woman in Black
7. Big Miracle
8. The Grey
9. Underworld: Awakening
10. One For the Money
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
