Big screen newcomers have been enjoying a rather smooth ride this month and that should continue with Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance and This Means War over this four-day holiday weekend. This time in 2007, Ghost Rider opened with a whopping $45.4 million. Will round two take just as much? Definitely not, but it shouldn’t trail behind by much. Spirit of Vengeance is heading towards a sub Hellboy II-sized opening of about $30 million. As for This Means War, with The Vow still going strong, it’ll have a tough time pulling in much of a post-Valentine’s day crowd. The film opened early and only accumulated $1.65 million on its first day out. That’s a mere $600 per theater. Even though attendance will certainly go up over the weekend, it still won’t top The Vow, earning roughly $20 million, similar to Knight & Day.
Last up for the newcomers is the animated flick The Secret World of Arrietty. Yes, this one will crack the top ten, but with only 1,522, it won’t get anywhere near the other new releases. Should the film perform similarly to Ponyo, it’ll take about $3.5 million to the bank this weekend.
Now for the old timers. After a stellar start, The Vow should hold on rather strong, still riding the holiday wave. Should it lose just 35% of its opening weekend earnings, it’ll take another $27 million. With no new direct competition entering the race, Safe House should continue to do well, too. Should that one lose about 40%, it’ll take about $24 million its second weekend out. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is also heading towards a rather successful second weekend, perhaps only losing 30% with no new family-friendly fare to compete with. Should that be the case, it’ll add another $19 million to its total. Last up for the second weekers is Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace, which, should it follow in the footsteps of Beauty and the Beast, is heading towards a 50% loss, leaving it with just $11 million this time around.
Chronicle’s 45% week one to two drop should remain the same, which would give it about $6.5 million while The Woman in Black could run right into another 50% loss, leaving it with about $5 million. The Secret World of Arrietty should come in right behind with its $3.5 million followed by The Grey and its $3 million week four haul.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance
2. The Vow
3. Safe House
4. This Means War
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
6. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace
7. Chronicle
8. The Woman in Black
9. The Secret World of Arrietty
10. The Grey
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
