There’s a lot at stake when any feature film hits theaters, but in John Carter’s case, it’s a whopping $250 million gamble. Regardless of whether or not John Carter was on its way to a decent start, the mere reports that the film wasn’t tracking well could be enough to put a bad taste in moviegoers’ mouths. There’s absolutely no way John Carter will come anywhere close to an Alice in Wonderland-sized March debut and it might not even match Watchmen‘s $55 million start. However, it could wind up with an opening number similar to that of Battle: Los Angeles and 10,000 B.C., about $35 million.

As for Silent House, it’s got the benefit of riding the Elizabeth Olsen wave and being the first horror film to hit in about a month. Should it put up a $6,000 per theater average in its 2,124 locations, Silent House will kick off its run with $12 million. Last up for the new releases is the latest from Eddie Murphy, A Thousand Words. Sure, Tower Heist had a decent start, but with that one, Murphy was in good company. A Thousand Words is far more comparable to the actor’s 2009 release, Imagine That, which earned a mere $5.5 million.

As for the veterans, all eyes are on Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax. Where do you go after a stellar $70.2 million opening? In The Lorax’s case, perhaps down to about $42 million. Should the film lose 40% of its opening weekend profits, it’ll still have more than enough to trump John Carter and hold on to that top spot. Project X, on the other hand, is facing a far harder hit. Should that one drop 55%, it’ll take $9.5 million its second weekend out.

Act of Valor enjoyed a rather minimal weekend two hit, but this time around, it could lose about half of its profits, which would leave it with $6.5 for weekend three. As for Safe House, it’ll likely maintain a moderate decline, following up its week three to four 32.4% drop with a 40% one, giving it another $4.5 million. And, in true Tyler Perry fashion, Good Deeds will continue its landslide fall, losing half of its profits yet again for a $3.5 million weekend three.

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island took its toughest hit yet last weekend and could see the same this time around. Should it lose about 50% from weekend four to five, it’ll post a $3 million haul. Lastly, The Vow shouldn’t have any trouble fending off This Means War for that last spot on the top ten, perhaps losing 50% and taking another $3 million to the bank.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. The Vow

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)