Could The Hunger Games lose the top spot after just two weeks? It’s unlikely, especially with kids out of school for the holiday. Even with American Reunion crashing 3,200 theaters and Titanic 3D continuing its run, a 50% week two to three drop will still leave The Hunger Games with about $30 million and the #1 slot.
As for those newcomers, it’s highly unlikely that American Reunion will earn as much as the summer releases, American Pie 2 and American Wedding, but could get a holiday boost and come in with about $27 million. As for Titanic 3D, the fact that it hit theaters on Wednesday instead of Friday, could steal some of its weekend thunder, but it should have no trouble coming close to The Lion King 3D’s $30 million start with about $28 million.
Wrath of the Titans didn’t open as strong as Clash of the Titans, but it still looks to take a similar weekend one to two fall. Should Wrath lose 56% of its starting profits, it’ll wrap weekend two with $15 million. With a far smaller weekend one total and with no new kiddie-approved material entering the race, Mirror Mirror could take a mere 40% tumble, giving it another $11 million. 21 Jump Street, on the other hand, could finally see a heftier hit courtesy of American Reunion. If it loses 45%, it’ll wrap weekend four with $8 million.
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax has lost about 40% from weekend to weekend roughly every weekend since it opened and that trend should continue. Should it lose 40% of its $7.8 million from weekend five, it’ll post $4.5 million for weekend six. On the other hand, John Carter hasn’t had it easy from day one and the same will be true of weekend three. If John Carter drops 50%, it’ll only take $1 million for its fifth weekend out.
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen got a nice boost thanks to an additional 359 theaters, but this time around, that $2,635 per theater average could drop to just $1,500. Should that be the case, the film will only earn another $720,000. Wrapping up the top ten will likely be Act of Valor, which has enjoyed quite the long and steady run, perhaps enjoying its last weekend in the top ten with $500,000.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Hunger Games
2. Titanic 3D
3. American Reunion
4. Wrath of the Titans
5. Mirror Mirror
6. 21 Jump Street
7. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
8. John Carter
9. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
10. Act of Valor
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
