This week’s a tough one. We’ve got four new wide releases hitting theaters, but none are sure things. With 3,100+ theaters and Clint Eastwood, “Trouble with the Curve” has got the best shot at topping the chart. Should it find middle ground between “Moneyball” and “Secretariat,” it’ll wrap its first weekend out with about $15 million. Will enough “Hunger Games” fans come out to support Jennifer Lawrence and get “House at the End of the Street” that second spot? I’m betting on it. Even though it’s only hitting 2,600 theaters as compared to “End of Watch’s” 2,730, the fact that “House” is one of the first horror films out of the gate leading up to Halloween could earn it an “Insidious” sized opening of $13 million. As for “End of Watch,” it’s on route to match “Drive” with an $11 million start while “Dredd 3D” should follow right behind with something equal to “Gamer’s” opening, about $10 million.
“Resident Evil: Retribution” will likely fall far faster than “Finding Nemo 3D,” but “Resident Evil” had enough of a lead on “Nemo” last weekend to stay on top just one more time. Should “Resident Evil” lose 55% of its opening weekend profits, it’ll be left with about $9.5 million while “Nemo” is looking at a 45% drop and another $9 million. Because we don’t know how many theaters it’s expanding to, “The Master” is going to be the toughest one to place. It posted an incredible $147,262 per theater average at its five theaters last weekend and should that five be bumped up to, let’s say 600, that average will undoubtedly go way down, but it’ll still pull in a nice chunk of cash, perhaps about $6 million total.
As for the remaining three spots on the top ten, it’s all about which movies can hold on just a little bit longer. “The Possession” and “Lawless” have been enjoying very slow declines, so they should stay right in line, “The Possession” taking another $3.5 million and “Lawless” another $2.6 million. However, there might be a swap with “The Expendables 2” and “ParaNorman.” Should “The Expendables 2” drop 40% from weekend five to six and “ParaNorman” just 40%, the former will take $1.6 million and the latter $1.8 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Trouble with the Curve
2. House at the End of the Street
3. End of Watch
4. Dredd 3D
5. Resident Evil: Retribution
6. Finding Nemo 3D
7. The Master
8. The Possession
9. Lawless
10. ParaNorman
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
