Turns out four new wide releases was nothing to be excited about, none of last weekend’s debuts earning more than $15 million. We’ve only got three new films entering the race this last weekend of September, but between those three and last weekend’s quartet only moving into weekend two, we might see the profits split yet again. With 3,349 theaters and no competition in the kid-friendly department, “Hotel Transylvania” should easily secure the top spot, possibly matching Adam Sandler’s “Jack and Jill” with about $25 million. Thanks to quite a bit of hype and positive reviews, “Looper” should come in right behind, matching “Source Code” and “Surrogates” with $15 million. “Won’t Back Down,” on the other hand, likely won’t earn enough to trail “Looper” and will find itself in the fourth position with $8 million, slightly less than 2007’s “Freedom Writers.”
Positive word of mouth could keep “End of Watch” going strong, possibly only losing 40% and taking another $8 million. However, there’s no avoiding the obligatory 50% weekend two horror drop for “House at the End of the Street.” It’ll be lucky to earn another $6 million and barely beat out “Trouble with the Curve” for the sixth spot. “Trouble with the Curve” may not be a horror film, but with such a lackluster start and lukewarm reviews, it’ll lose steam fast, only earning $5.5 million in weekend two.
“Finding Nemo” could experience a double take, losing 42% yet again for a weekend three total of $5.5 million while “Dredd” might hold on strong enough to beat out “Resident Evil: Retribution” for the eighth spot. Should “Retribution” take a 50% hit and positive buzz keep “Dredd” afloat enough for a 40% drop, “Retribution” will take $3.5 million and “Dredd” will earn just more than that. Rounding out the top ten should be The Master, which enjoyed a 496.4% boost courtesy of the additional 783 screens. Should it lose 35% of its weekend two profits, it’ll wrap weekend three with just under $3 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Hotel Transylvania
2. Looper
3. End of Watch
4. Won’t Back Down
5. House at the End of the Street
6. Trouble with the Curve
7. Finding Nemo 3D
8. Dredd
9. Resident Evil: Retribution
10. The Master
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
