We’ve got five new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend. “Atlas Shrugged: Part II” won’t crack the top ten with only 1,012 theaters, but 1,480 could be enough to get “Seven Psychopaths” $9 million like 2010’s “The Losers.” The next widest release goes to “Sinister” with 2,527 locations. Fingers are crossed that moviegoers will be in the holiday spirit and will let “Sinister” take at least as much as “Insidious,” about $13 million to start. While “Here Comes the Boom” is getting 3,014 theaters, a lackluster marketing campaign could leave Kevin James’ latest with a little less than “The Three Stooges,” $4,000 per theater and $12 million in total. Even with very positive reviews, Oscar buzz and 3,232 theaters, Ben Affleck’s “Argo” could wind up only barely earning the second spot. Should it post a $5,000 per theater average, similar to “The Ides of March,” “Argo” will take about $17 million.
Back in 2009, “Taken” enjoyed a wildly impressive weekend one to two drop of just 16.9%. Well, between sour reviews and a bloated opening, “Taken 2” is looking at something more along the lines of a 55% slashing. But still, a $22 million second weekend out is pretty solid and enough to lock the top spot yet again. Thanks to the lack of new kid-friendly material and the upcoming holiday, there’s a good chance “Hotel Transylvania” will drop just 37% again. Should that be the case, it’ll take another $17 million to the bank. Positive word of mouth could lead to a minimal decline for “Pitch Perfect” as well. Should it drop 40%, it’ll earn another $9 million.
While “Looper” will likely hold on strong, it’s 41.8% weekend one to two drop could get bumped up to 45% for weekend two to three, which would give it a total of $6.5 million. Sadly “Frankenweenie” might be the one to take the tough tumble. After making just $11.4 million to start, Tim Burton’s latest could see its opening profits slashed in half for a mere $6 million weekend two haul. With a minimal gap between “End of Watch,” “Trouble with the Curve,” and “House at the End of the Street,” that 10th spot is a tough call, but I’m going to have to side with the holiday and say “House at the End of the Street” is the one to hold on stronger, locking the last spot on the top ten with $2 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Taken 2
2. Argo
3. Hotel Transylvania
4. Sinister
5. Here Comes the Boom
6. Seven Psychopaths
7. Pitch Perfect
8. Looper
9. Frankenweenie
10. House at the End of the Street
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
