And so the reign of “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2” continues. With “Killing Them Softly” opening in just 2,000 theaters and “The Collection” being the only other new film entering the competition, “Breaking Dawn” should have no trouble going three for three and taking the top spot again. Should it keep in line with “Breaking Dawn – Part 1,” “Part 2” could be facing a 55% drop, which would give it $20 million for weekend three.
While “Skyfall” won’t manage to catch “Twilight,” it will come pretty close. After an incredibly minimal 13.6% weekend two to three decline, “Skyfall” has a good shot at maintaining 55% of its profits for a $19 million haul. “Lincoln” is poised to maintain its position on the charts, too, only losing 45% of its weekend three profits for $14 million and the #3 spot.
After a mediocre start, “Rise of the Guardians” should see a solid second weekend thanks to the lack of kid-friendly fare. Should it lose 40% of its opening profits, it’ll come in right behind “Lincoln” with about $13.5 million. And, just like last weekend, “Life of Pi” will be close behind, likely falling 45% and taking in another $12 million. With “Wreck-It Ralph” entering weekend five and more heading off to catch “Rise of the Guardians,” “Ralph” could take his biggest hit yet, dropping 45% for $9 million.
Now here’s where “Killing Them Softly” looks to nestle in. Should it post numbers similar to 2011’s “Drive,” it’ll be looking at an $8 million weekend, kicking off its run in the 7th position. As for “The Collection,” without an exact theater count it’s a tough one to place, but assuming it sees a slightly wider opening than the last installment, perhaps about 1,500 theaters, it could accumulate about $4 million, good enough to steal the 10th spot from “Silver Linings Playbook.”
Courtesy of awards buzz and the simple fact that the movie is exponentially better, “Flight” is a sure thing to take down “Red Dawn” for the 8th position. Should “Red Dawn” plummet and take a 60% weekend two slashing and “Flight” lose a mere 30%, the former will post just $5.5 million with the latter taking closer to $6 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2
2. Skyfall
3. Lincoln
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. Life of Pi
6. Wreck-It Ralph
7. Killing Them Softly
8. Flight
9. Red Dawn
10. The Collector
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
