With just a single new release hitting theaters this weekend, and one that looks to underperform at that, the top ten could remain intact for the most part. Should “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2” pull a “Breaking Dawn – Part 1,” it’ll see a 50% weekend three to four drop and take another $9 million to the bank. While “Skyfall” won’t fall as hard, it also won’t stay strong enough to trump “Twilight” and steal the top spot. If “Skyfall” slips by 45%, it’ll post just under $9 million for the second position.
Even with no kid-friendly fare entering the race, younger moviegoers are still not out of school, so this could be a lackluster weekend for “Rise of the Guardians.” If it drops 45%, it’ll take another $7 million. And even though awards season is upon us, so is the second weekend of December so Oscar buzz or no Oscar buzz, the outlook is grim, even for films like “Lincoln” and “Life of Pi.” Should both drop 45%, they’ll take $7 million and $6.5 million, respectively.
Now here’s where newcomer “Playing for Keeps” could sneak its way in. Should it match 2009’s “Did You Hear About the Morgans?,” it’ll take about $6 million, which should be just good enough for the 6th spot on the top ten. After a tough 58.1% weekend four to five tumble, weekend six won’t get much better for “Wreck-It Ralph.” The film is due to lose 341 theaters, which could be just enough to hit it with a 50% drop for a mere $3.5 million total, and that might be just low enough for both “Killing Them Softly” and “Red Dawn” to surpass it.
“Killing Them Softly” suffered a weak opening, but curiosity and Brad Pitt could lead to a decent amount of word-of-mouth, possibly letting the film hold on to 60% of its opening profits for a $4 million second weekend out. As for “Red Dawn,” even though it’s been on a fast decline, it’s only losing 27 theaters this weekend so should be able to hold on stronger than “Wreck-It Ralph.” Should it drop 45%, it’ll take just over $3.5 million.
With “The Collection” heading towards a very swift exit, “Flight” should have no trouble hanging in there and posting just enough for the final position on the top ten, about $2 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2
2. Skyfall
3. Rise of the Guardians
4. Lincoln
5. Life of Pi
6. Playing for Keeps
7. Killing Them Softly
8. Red Dawn
9. Wreck-It Ralph
10. Flight
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
