We’ve got a pair of new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend and while neither faces much in-genre competition, they also don’t pack the power to pull in much money. “Identity Thief” is due in over 3,000 theaters, but should it find itself in a similar place as the February 2011 comedy release, “Hall Pass,” it’ll only take $14 million opening weekend. As for “Side Effects,” even with solid reviews, a decent promotional effort, and four very famous faces, the appeal of the material may not stretch wide enough for the film to make much of a dent at the box office. It could wind up with a “From Paris with Love” size opening of about $10 million.
“Warm Bodies” may have enjoyed a strong opening weekend, but it runs the risk of slipping fast, especially with another YA book-to-film adaptation coming our way next weekend. But before we have the zombie romance dip way down to the bottom half of the top ten, a 50% weekend one to two loss could keep it at #3 until “Beautiful Creatures” arrives. After an expected 52.1% hit, “Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters” could level out a bit, but is still heading towards at least a 45% drop. Should that be the case, it’ll take another $5 million to the bank for weekend three.
After a mere 12.2% drop and then an 18.1% decline, “Silver Linings Playbook” shows no signs of slipping any more than 25% in weekend 13, which would give it another $6 million and the 4th spot on the top ten. “Mama” is fading fast, but not fast enough to let “Zero Dark Thirty” creep back up on “Silver Linings.” Should “Mama” drop 45% and “Zero Dark Thirty” just 40%, the former will still stay on top, posting $3.5 million for #6 with the latter taking $3 million for #7.
Even after abysmal starts, both “Bullet to the Head” and “Parker” will get one more weekend in the top ten, but those Oscar nominees will certainly be nipping at their heels. Should both films go down by 50%, that’ll give “Bullet to the Head” another $2.3 million and “Parker” just about $1.6 million, leaving that 10th spot wide open for “Django Unchained,” “Les Misérables,” “Lincoln” or “Argo.” Courtesy of last weekend’s boost in theaters and the film’s immense awards season success, “Argo” might propel to the top of the pack, snagging that last spot with about $1.5 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Identity Thief
2. Side Effects
3. Warm Bodies
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
6. Mama
7. Zero Dark Thirty
8. Bullet to the Head
9. Parker
10. Argo
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
