With the summer movie season just around the corner, big time moneymaking will be put on hold this weekend. “Pain and Gain” is getting the wider release and will likely take the top spot because of it. Should it manage to surpass “Red,” it’ll start its run with about $24 million. As for “The Big Wedding,” even with a star-studded cast, it won’t even manage to match last April’s wedding movie, “The Five-Year Engagement,” taking only about $10 million for its first weekend out.
While “Pain and Gain” could snag some of “Oblivion’s” action-hungry audience, the wildly different tones could let “Oblivion” retain a nice chunk of its opening profits. Should it dip 40%, it’ll still take $22 million and the #2 spot. “42” could manage to hold strong yet again. If that 35.5% weekend one to two drop gets bumped up to 43%, it’ll still take $10 million to the bank and possibly steal the #3 spot from “The Big Wedding.”
After five weeks, “The Croods” is finally starting to wave goodbye to some theaters, but with only 152 being forfeited, its percent loss shouldn’t increase much. Should its decline go back up from 29.6% to 36.5%, it’ll take $6 million for weekend six. With “Scary Movie 5” continuing to plummet, “G.I. Joe Retaliation” and “The Place Beyond the Pines” could both manage to surpass it on the charts. Thanks to an additional 42 theaters, “The Place Beyond the Pines” might earn enough to swap spots with “G.I. Joe.” as well. Should “G.I. Joe” take another 47% hit and “The Place Beyond the Pines” drop just 30%, the former will take the #6 spot with just over $3 million while the latter follows with $3 million even. And then in comes “Scary Movie 5,” which, should it drop by 55.5% yet again, will be left with only $2.7 million this time around.
As for the last two spots on the top ten, if “Olympus Has Fallen,” maintain its weekend four to five dip of about 40%, it’ll definitely lock #9 with a $2.5 million weekend six total while “Jurassic Park 3D” will likely be the one to snag #10 considering “Evil Dead” is on a quicker decline. If its percent loss levels out to about 45% in weekend four, it’ll take just about $2 million to the bank.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Pain and Gain
2. Oblivion
3. 42
4. The Big Wedding
5. The Croods
6. The Place Beyond the Pines
7. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
8. Scary Movie 5
9. Olympus Has Fallen
10. Jurassic Park 3D
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
