We’re in between summer blockbusters this weekend, but “Neighbors” still could take advantage of the lack of competition. “Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return” hasn’t made much of an impression on the marketing front and “Moms’ Night Out” is only hitting 1,000 theaters, so “Neighbors” should be in the clear and snag a good chunk of the weekend profits. It won’t manage to post “The Heat”-sized earnings, but it could come in just behind with about $37 million to start.
Back in 2012, “The Amazing Spider-Man” only dipped 44.2% making the move from weekend one to two, but considering the sequel made nearly $30 million more, that percent change is bound to come up. If it levels off at 60%, “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” will settle in just behind “Neighbors” with another $36 million.
With “Legends of Oz” and “Mom’s Night Out” being non-issues, much of last weekend’s top ten should stay intact. “The Other Woman” will take #3, likely with $8.5 million after taking another 40% hit while “Heaven is for Real” stays right behind with a weekend four total of $5 million. Even though “Legends of Oz” will give “Rio 2” some direct competition, “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” will make the bigger mark and that could cause “Rio 2” and “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” to swap spots. If “Rio” dips just 43% and “Captain America” loses another 50%, the former will take #5 with about $4.4 million and the latter will come in at #6 with $3.9 million of its own.
Here’s where “Legends of Oz” and “Moms’ Night Out” might be able to slip in. If “Moms’ Night Out” manages to come in just behind “Single Moms Club” with a $3,500 per theater average, it’ll take $3.5 million in total, putting it in the #7 spot and if “Legends of Oz” pulls a “Battle for Terra” with a $1,000 per theater opening, it’ll take #8 with $2.5 million to start.
Neither “Brick Mansions” nor “Divergent” are scheduled to lose any theaters, so both should manage to secure a moderate percent change. “Brick Mansions” took a big hit last weekend, but if it brings that 61.2% loss down to about 50%, it’ll take $1.8 million to lock in #9. And as for “Divergent,” it should have no trouble repeating last weekend’s 40% drop, which would let it enjoy one last weekend in the top ten with $1.3 million for its eighth weekend out.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Neighbors
2. The Amazing-Spider Man 2
3. The Other Woman
4. Heaven is for Real
5. Rio 2
6. Captain America: The Winter Solider
7. Moms’ Night Out
8. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
9. Brick Mansions
10. Divergent
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
