“22 Jump Street” will likely be more successful than the first film, but an R-rated comedy just has no chance against a high quality family-friendly animated film. Whereas “22 Jump Street” is probably on its way to about $45 million, “How to Train Your Dragon 2” has a very good shot at surpassing its predecessor’s opening haul of $43.7 million, possibly taking $65 million.
After a monumental start, “The Fault in Our Stars” should continue to benefit from all the hype and now positive word-of-mouth as well. If it manages to retain 60% of its opening profits, it’ll continue to dwarf its measly $12 million production budget and put another $28 million in the bank. “Maleficent,” on the other hand, will likely continue to plummet. It dipped 50% making the move from weekend one to two and the same thing could happen this time around, too. Should that be the case, “Maleficent” will take just $17 million and that might only be good enough for the fifth position.
“Edge of Tomorrow” didn’t have the greatest start, but positive buzz could let it stick around for a little longer. If it manages to keep its percent change to 40%, it’ll just sneak past “Maleficent” with a little more than $17 million. “X-Men: Days of Future Past” will probably continue to drop fast, but it’s got enough of a lead on “A Million Ways to Die in the West” that the #6 spot will be an easy grab. If it brings that 53.4% decrease from last weekend down to 50%, it’ll post about $8 million for its fourth weekend out.
“A Million Ways to Die in the West” could have a bigger problem on its hands. It’s had a rough go since day one and “22 Jump Street” definitely won’t make it any better. If it takes another 56% hit and “Godzilla” only loses 45%, they’ll swap places, “Godzilla” taking #7 with $3.3 million and “A Million Ways” coming in just behind with $3.2 million.
“Blended” has been busy making a swift exit and considering it’s due to lose well over 1,000 theaters this weekend, it could be out of the competition completely, leaving just “Neighbors” and “Chef” vying for #9 and #10. “Neighbors” will undoubtedly take a bigger hit with “22 Jump Street” moving in, but nothing sizable enough to make it lose out to “Chef.” Should “Neighbors” take a 50% hit and “Chef” drop just 25%, “Neighbors” will come in at #9 with $2.7 million and “Chef” will take #10 with an even $2 million.
ShockYa Predictions
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $65 million
2. 22 Jump Street – $45 million
3. The Fault in Our Stars – $28 million
4. Edge of Tomorrow – $17.2 million
5. Maleficent – $17 million
6. X-Men: Days of Future Past – $8 million
7. Godzilla – $3.3 million
8. A Million Ways to Die in the West – $3.2 million
9. Neighbors – $2.7 million
10. Chef – $2 million
By Perri Nemiroff (Box Office Figures via Box Office Mojo)
