A growing trend among Americans is reshaping the nation’s demographics: an increasing number of adults are choosing not to have children. This shift is significantly contributing to the United States’ record-low birthrate, a development with profound implications for the country’s future.

According to an analysis by University of Texas demographer Dean Spears, using Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey data, the primary factor behind the declining average births among 35- to 44-year-olds from 2012 to 2022 is not merely delayed parenthood but an increase in childlessness. Spears’ findings, published in The Wall Street Journal, reveal that over two-thirds of the 6.5% drop in average births during this period can be attributed to more women opting not to have children at all.

While it is true that more people are becoming parents later in life, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics indicates that 80% of babies born in 2022 were to women under 35. This suggests that despite the trend of delayed parenthood, the majority of births are still occurring among younger women. However, the overall impact on birth rates remains substantial.

Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, points out, “Some may still have children, but whether it’ll be enough to compensate for the delays that are driving down fertility overall seems unlikely.” This highlights the challenge of reversing the trend in birth rates even if delayed parenthood is considered.

The trend of increasing childlessness spans across all demographics, including various races, income levels, employment statuses, regions, and education groups, as identified by Luke Pardue of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. This widespread nature of the trend underscores the complexity of the issue and the need for comprehensive policy approaches to address it.

As America grapples with this demographic shift, the implications are far-reaching, affecting everything from economic growth to social services. The choice of many Americans to remain childless is a pivotal factor in the evolving landscape of the nation’s population dynamics.