In the latest indication that former President Donald Trump remains a formidable force in American politics, a new poll shows him leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in the 2024 presidential race. The poll, conducted from August 9-12, surveyed 1,105 registered voters and reveals Trump ahead by one percentage point—50 percent to Harris’s 49 percent—demonstrating his continued strength and appeal among voters.
NEW POLL: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris nationally by one point https://t.co/TXGoUBxTsn
— The Hill (@thehill) August 15, 2024
This razor-thin margin comes after a series of significant events that have shaped the political landscape in recent weeks. Since the last poll, Trump has navigated an attempted assassination, energized his base at the Republican National Convention, and announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and subsequent endorsement of Kamala Harris, along with her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential pick, have done little to shake Trump’s solid lead.
The poll highlights Trump’s unwavering support within the Republican Party, with 93 percent of Republicans backing him, nearly matching Harris’s 94 percent support among Democrats. However, where Trump truly shines is among Independents—an essential voting bloc—where he holds a decisive 8-point lead over Harris. This edge among Independents could prove crucial in a general election where swing voters often decide the outcome.
Trump’s ability to retain 95 percent of his 2020 voters is a testament to his lasting influence and connection with his base. Meanwhile, Harris struggles to match this loyalty, holding onto 93 percent of Biden’s 2020 supporters. New voters, a group that often signals the direction of the electorate, are evenly split, with both candidates capturing 49 percent. Notably, Trump had a significant 7-point lead over Biden with this group last month, indicating a strong foundation of support that could once again tilt in his favor.
Gender dynamics also play a critical role in this race. Trump dominates among male voters with a 12-point lead, reflecting his appeal to a demographic that has consistently supported him. While Harris leads among women by 10 points, this gap is not enough to overcome Trump’s overall edge, especially considering his substantial backing from white evangelicals, rural voters, and non-college-educated white men—groups that have consistently been his strongholds.
Even in areas where Harris should have a natural advantage, Trump holds his ground. Despite Harris’s selection of Tim Walz, a veteran with National Guard service, as her running mate, Trump leads by a commanding 22 points among military veterans. Accusations of embellishment regarding Walz’s service could further erode Harris’s standing with this crucial voting bloc, underscoring Trump’s strength among those who have served.
As the 2024 election approaches, this poll is a clear signal that Trump’s path to victory remains viable. With strong support across key demographics and an unyielding base, Trump is well-positioned to reclaim the White House. The Harris campaign, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle as it struggles to close the gap and counter Trump’s enduring appeal.