NEWS POLITICS

CNN Election Expert Admits of Possible Trump Victory in 2024 if Polling Errors Persist

ByJustin Sanchez

Oct 9, 2024

In a recent broadcast, political analyst Harry Enten highlighted a significant concern for the 2024 presidential race. Enten, well-known for his expertise in election data, suggested that former President Donald Trump could potentially secure a “blowout” victory if polling inaccuracies from 2020 are repeated in the upcoming election. The latest polls indicate a close race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, but Enten’s analysis points to the potential for a surprise outcome.

Enten raised the alarm, stating, “Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020.” His analysis stems from the fact that Trump has consistently underperformed in polls throughout his political career, only to exceed expectations on Election Day. This polling disparity could once again favor Trump, particularly if the same types of errors occur that were seen in 2020.

According to Enten, an accurate polling forecast would give Harris a narrow edge with 276 electoral votes, thanks to strong showings in critical battleground states around the Great Lakes. However, this scenario assumes that the polls are correct, which was not the case in the last presidential election. Enten continued, “If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.”

But what if the polls are off by a similar margin as they were four years ago? That’s where Enten’s analysis becomes particularly striking. He warned that if there’s a repeat of the 2020 polling errors, Trump could walk away with a dominant 312 electoral votes, securing victories in crucial swing states like Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. “Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in,” Enten emphasized.

This potential scenario could reshape the dynamics of the election, as it puts pressure on polling organizations to improve their methodologies. The 2020 election revealed that many polls underestimated the number of Trump voters, and a similar oversight in 2024 could lead to yet another surprise outcome.

By Justin Sanchez

Born with a copy of "Atlas Shrugged" in hand, Justin showed early signs of his future as a conservative firebrand. Raised in a household where Rush Limbaugh's voice echoed through the halls, Justin was inspired to become a prominent figure in conservative journalism, in which he shares his support of Republican values.