With just weeks left until the 2024 presidential election, new data from election betting platforms and polling sites indicate that former President Donald Trump is gaining significant momentum in battleground states. According to Polymarket, Trump currently holds a commanding lead in Pennsylvania (+9%), Michigan (+6%), Wisconsin (+4%), Georgia (+27%), Arizona (+36%), and North Carolina (+25%). Although Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow 1% edge in Nevada, national betting odds favor Trump by an impressive +10.8%, marking the highest lead by any candidate since July.
Trump’s strong performance in these swing states aligns closely with RealClearPolling’s latest averages, which also show Trump leading in five out of seven battlegrounds. Polls reveal Trump narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania (+0.3%), Michigan (+0.9%), Georgia (+0.5%), Arizona (+1.1%), and North Carolina (+0.5%). While both the odds and polls predict a tight race, the betting markets suggest a decisive electoral advantage for Trump. If the election results match current odds, Trump would secure 306 electoral votes—comfortably exceeding the 270 needed to win.
The data also highlight notable discrepancies between the odds and state polling. In Nevada, where Harris holds a slight edge among bettors, polling gives Trump a 0.2% lead. Similarly, while the betting markets show Trump leading in Wisconsin, state polls currently place Harris 0.3% ahead. These inconsistencies underscore the unpredictability of the election’s final stretch, where both sides are vying for every last vote.
Beyond the presidential race, Republicans are emerging as favorites to reclaim control of the Senate. Betting odds tracked by Maxim Lott and John Stossel show the GOP with a 56-point advantage—up from a 37-point lead just 10 days earlier. Meanwhile, Democrats are still favored to retain the House, but their advantage has narrowed to 10.5 points, a significant drop from the 25-point lead reported on October 4.
The sharp increase in Trump’s odds reflects more than just momentum. His ability to resonate with voters in critical states could have profound implications for the broader political landscape. If current betting trends hold, Republicans will gain ground in the Senate while Democrats struggle to maintain control of the House.
As Election Day approaches, Trump’s campaign is capitalizing on both favorable polls and betting trends, suggesting that public sentiment is shifting in his favor. The big question remains: will the betting odds accurately predict another Trump victory, or will the polls prove more reliable? With both indicators pointing toward a potential Trump win, the pressure is mounting on Harris to reverse the narrative before it’s too late.
