A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris polling at historically low numbers for a Democratic presidential nominee in New York City, marking the lowest levels seen for a Democrat in decades. The poll reveals Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 66% to 27% among registered voters, a significant drop from President Biden’s overwhelming 76% to 23% win over Trump in 2020 in the heavily Democratic city.
This news arrives just as Trump is set to hold a major rally at Madison Square Garden, where he is expected to underscore his ambition to claim New York’s 28 electoral votes — an aim that would require a historic shift in a city that has long leaned left. Trump’s rally comes as New York City battles economic pressures and ongoing challenges from a large influx of migrants, issues that are resonating with voters.
The poll also identified the top three issues influencing New York City voters: the economy, immigration, and abortion. With inflation concerns persisting and costs of living climbing, the economy remains a critical factor. New York City currently has the highest median monthly rent for one-bedroom apartments out of 100 cities nationwide, according to rental marketplace Zumper.
Immigration emerged as a close second among voter concerns, as the city has taken in tens of thousands of migrants over recent years, resulting in unprecedented financial strain. Mayor Eric Adams has previously stated that the cost of managing the migrant influx is projected to surpass $5 billion and may even reach $10 billion by the end of the next fiscal year. For many New Yorkers, this issue highlights the growing demands on public resources.
If the current polling numbers hold, Harris’s performance in New York could represent the weakest showing for a Democratic candidate in the city since 1988, an outcome that would likely cause concern among party leaders. Her lower polling may reflect voter frustrations over New York’s handling of multiple crises, including the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, economic pressures, and the ongoing migrant situation. For Trump, whose rally is anticipated to be a defining moment of his campaign in New York, these issues may provide an unexpected opening in a state traditionally dominated by Democratic votes.
As Election Day nears, Harris will need to address these pressing issues to maintain the support that Democrats have historically counted on in New York City. With Trump’s bold move to rally in Madison Square Garden, the race could tighten in surprising ways, making the economic and immigration concerns of New Yorkers key focal points in this year’s election.
