A noted election forecaster who previously projected a landslide victory for Vice President Kamala Harris has recently altered his prediction, now favoring former President Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential race. Data scientist Thomas Miller, who accurately called the 2020 election, initially predicted that Harris would secure over 400 electoral votes. His model, known for its unique approach of analyzing betting odds rather than traditional polling, has now updated to show Trump leading the path to the White House, with a projected 345 electoral votes.
Donald Trump now set for landslide: Forecaster who backed Kamala Harris https://t.co/o7zZXQHFdG
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) October 30, 2024
According to Miller’s latest forecast, this shift aligns with Trump’s substantial appeal across several key states, particularly in the South and Midwest. The model indicates that if Trump secures all states where Harris is currently holding narrow, single-digit leads, the former president would see a sweeping victory, similar to what Newsweek mapped out in its hypothetical electoral scenario. Miller’s model suggests that voter momentum is leaning significantly toward Trump, with states previously leaning Democratic now tipping in his favor.
In recent weeks, Trump has concentrated on these battleground states, leveraging campaign visits and policy pitches aimed at middle-American issues. Miller’s model’s reliance on betting odds offers a fresh perspective amid the fluctuating polling data, portraying a potentially strong support base for Trump that polling alone may not fully capture. As the election cycle intensifies, this adjustment by Miller adds to the unfolding narrative of one of the most closely watched races in recent history.
