President Joe Biden’s administration is pushing a last-minute rule that could ban almost all commercially available cigarettes in the United States. Critics argue the move will harm local economies, destroy agricultural livelihoods, and create a golden opportunity for black-market criminals to thrive.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rule would impose a strict nicotine limit on cigarettes, effectively eliminating most products currently on the market. The rule comes as Biden’s Office of Management and Budget completed its review on January 3, leaving implementation to the incoming administration led by President-elect Donald Trump after a public comment period.
Supporters of the rule claim it will drastically lower smoking rates, with government estimates projecting a reduction to just over 1% by 2100. However, critics warn the plan will come at a devastating cost. Former ATF assistant director Richard Marianos blasted the proposal, calling it a gift to criminals. “This is a gift that Biden is giving to criminals out there, and they’re going to capitalize on it,” said Marianos, who now teaches at Georgetown University. He warned that unregulated black-market cigarettes would flood the country, enriching cartels, counterfeiters, and organized crime.
Marianos explained that law enforcement lacks the resources to address a surge in cigarette trafficking. “You’re going to empower the cartels on the border. You’re going to empower the Chinese counterfeiters. You’re going to empower Russian organized crime,” he said. “Prohibition, or any type of change in a product like this, never works. It hasn’t worked in the past, and it’s going to create problems.”
Economists and agricultural experts also warn of widespread economic devastation. A report by Chmura Economics & Analytics estimates the rule would cost federal, state, and local governments $24 billion annually in lost tax revenue. Additionally, the regulation could eliminate more than 150,000 jobs across agriculture and retail industries, with ripple effects impacting local economies.
The damage would be especially severe in tobacco-growing states like North Carolina. Ray Starling, general counsel for the North Carolina Chamber of Commerce, said the proposed rule would devastate farmers who rely on tobacco as part of their diversified operations. “What people need to understand is we don’t have people that are just tobacco farmers. They are tobacco farmers and also produce and vegetable farmers, or wheat farmers, or they also have hogs and cattle,” he said. “If you take tobacco farming out of the quiver of some of these farmers, it will be what sort of tips them over to the edge of being in the red and not in the black.”
Starling criticized the FDA for failing to account for the broader consequences of its rule, which would result in states losing an additional $21 billion annually from the 1998 Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement. This settlement has been a crucial funding source for education and public health programs in every state.
Biden’s proposal, made during his final weeks in office, has sparked heated opposition from conservatives and free-market advocates. Critics argue the federal government should not dictate personal choices, especially when such sweeping regulations would have devastating economic and social consequences. The rule not only threatens thousands of jobs but could also enrich criminals while punishing law-abiding Americans.
